predictions – Ground(ed) Effects

SuperMegaComebackPost: Sir Issac Newton, The Breakfast Club, The Crystal Ball, and Change

Newton’s First Law of Blogging:

Blogs at rest stay at rest,

Blogs in motion stay in constant motion,

unless either is acted upon by another force.

My blogging inertia was acted upon by a recent reminder (active mention on video) of my visit to Nashville which gave me time to hang out with our good Indycar friend George Phillips of Oilpressure.com and @oilpressureblog fame.

His gracious allowance of me as a guest on the recording of his “One Take Only” video segment, which appears on his blog, was a treat and a great and all-too-brief experience. Joining us was his original One Take Only counterpart, John McLallen and the three of us spent most of a gorgeous early-autumn Tennessee Saturday afternoon discussing all manner of things, but mostly the centering around Indycar.

After another “One Take Only” post, I reflected on my visit and noted how, despite our different points of view, we also need to remember and reinforce the commonalities shared as Indycar fans. Sequestered in relative solitude on George’s back patio, our various discussions, while not nearly as intense, did make me recall the John Hughes movie “The Breakfast Club” (which recently celebrated its 30th anniversary theatrical re-release) and how we fans may not be so dissimilar to the characters in that movie.

Perhaps writing a letter similar to Brian’s in the movie will also remind us of how we should not so easily let others or ourselves be defined by the various ‘entrenched encampments’ of Indycar fandom.

Mr. Indycar-Overlord,

We accept the fact that we had to sacrifice so many Saturdays and Sundays supporting Indycar, but we think you’re crazy to make us write a blog telling you who we think we are. You see us as you want to see us, in the simplest terms, the most convenient definitions. But what we found out is that each one of us is

a superfan,
a newbie,
a whiner,
an acolyte,
and a hyper-critic.

Does that answer your question?

Sincerely yours,
The Indycarfan Club

And now, It’s time for the Intermission…

And now, back again for the 2015 Indycar pre-season,

it’s DZ’s House of Indycar Megalomania!

(aka 2015 season predictions and strident drivel)

Oh, epochal and monolithic Indycar off-season. You are so coy.

With your belabored and long, somnombulant winter, you keep us in the doldrums until suddenly,

>BAM!<

exploding forth a lush, verdant optimism for Indycar in the form of.. (dare I actually believe they’re here).. AEROKITS!

Technically 3 years late (or approximately 5.333 Indycar seasons stacked end-to-end), but here nonetheless. With the first discernible chassis diversity since the end of the 2008 season, Indycar has finally delivered on the concept approved in 2010, backed up along with new chassis until ~~2011~~, then slated for ~~2012~~, delayed until ~~2013~~, ~~2014~~.. ehhhrm, we’ve all been through that so no need to rehash it.

Regardless, aerokits are here and despite my 2011 predictions otherwise, I am pleasantly surprised at the difference in shape the Road/Street/ShortOval kits.

Dare I say it?

I dare.

I. Am. Satisfied.

And now for the grisly prediction bits.
(unofficially brought to you by the effects of Founder’s All-Day IPA)

2015
Biggest Storyline – Penske’s Chevys will dominate – to the point of becoming so oppressive, that they will become reviled. Robin Miller often says, ‘hate is good’ when referring to the fans’ predilection for seeking out a hero or villain in any contest. Whether he means to or not, Penske will become the Indycar version of the New England Patriots – the most disliked team outside of “PenskeNation”. Even ol’ Chippy will let his ego slide and actually play up his underdog status to ride the wave of anti-Penskeness. Roger and Tim maintain their ZFG (Zero F***s Given) ‘tude and happily cash the giant cardboard winner’s checks for 8 of the 16 races this season.
– Championship – Simon Pagenaud.
– Top 6 in points will be made up of 4 Penske drivers and 2 Ganassi.
– The Galactic Empire is strong and will keep the Rebel scum on the run.

It’s not as if Honda won’t be competitive, they will. They will just be lacking that tiny, tiny margin that takes one from finishing 8th to 1st. Honda wins just three races of the season, BUT one of them will be the Indy 500.

Rookie Of The Year – Stefano Coletti. Don’t ask me why, just know it came to me in a dream (All-Day IPA haze).

Biggest Darkhorse – TIE: James Jakes and Gabby Chaves. Don’t be surprised if you’re surprised when one of these drivers scores a podium this year.

Best Livery – If that Schmidt-Peterson Motorsport Spyder car becomes reality on the track, you can forget all you ever thought about the glory of retro liveries. That mo-chine looks simply badass.

Biggest Comeback – Simona de Silvestro. Of course she’s a fan favorite on a massively talented and well-funded team. She’ll struggle to see more than half of the races this season, but will not disappoint the faith placed in her by Andretti Autosport. Less than half the races and finishing 14th in points will be hard to reconcile. Just maybe AA finds a way to keep her in a seat all season long. If so, watch out.

Biggest Disappointment – The fans who align with the Legions of the Miserable. A season of dominance by one team will certainly lead to the chorus of boo-birds who will choose to again aim their venom at the overlords of Indycar for the disparity in racing. Their myopic views conveniently forget to accurately recall during the most heady days of CART in the 1980s, for example, despite a Gordy and Rick Ravon Mears most amazing Indy 500 finish in modern history, that 7th place Jim Hickman was a full 11 laps down at the finish. 7th place out of 33 racers – 11 laps down. Typically in those days, beyond the top 5 or so finishers there was the rabble of twenty or so others who had no chance of sniffing the podium. A singularly great finish but great overall quality, the events were generally not. Far too many fans, including one R. Miller, will further mire themselves in nostalgia for a time that was really less entertaining racing that what we’ll see in 2015. That is simply sad and I think the current sport deserves better.

With 10 of the 16 races non-ovals, and all of the major conflagrations occurring outside the ghostly hallows of influence that ovals once held, the high-water point for the new speedway kits be at their unveiling in Indy, May 3rd. Once May is over, the Speedway Oval kits get precious little use, in deference to the mighty cheese-graters of R/S/SO kits.
I really don’t expect much difference at all in the High Speed Oval kits and honestly (leads me to my Biggest Revelation), “it just doesn’t matter“.

Why do I say this?

Because, my friends, I’ve returned to this blog an enlightened man.

In my many winters of malcontent, discontent, and general dissatisfaction in the direction of Indycar in relation to its glorious past, I’ve given up hope. Sounds bleak perhaps, but I assure that it is not and I’ll tell you why.

For some unknown reason, my epiphanies have been many with regard to several sports since the last checkered flag flew for Indycar in 2014, one of which is giving up hope that Indycar will ever become anything closely resembling the past or having some gloriously innovative and wide-open future. Maybe I’m a late-comer to this method of thinking, especially compared to the 20-somethings/new guard who’ve never experienced first-hand a field of Offys and Drakes, Chevys and Cosworths, in glorious song and never will.

For better or worse, nothing can change the fact that the past shall always remain there and I’ve come to believe the nostalgia, no matter how well-meaning or beloved, is ultimately harmful to the sport of today. The ‘earth’ moved by the seismic rift that began with the formation of CART in 1979, and major aftershock of the formation of IRL in 1994, can never be repaired. The ground has irreparably been shifted. So to history it all shall be laid anyway. Indycar must promote the here and now, and forget trading on past glory which always lends to irritating old wounds.

It’s a time to heal.
I’ve changed.

I’ve reconciled (finally) with Indycar never being the hallmark of innovation and brutal speed that it once was.

I’ve accepted that the glories past can never be recreated, and that they shouldn’t be.

I see many things on the horizon for Indycar that will give me much entertainment and satisfaction, when I don’t look at it from the immensely-removed perspective that includes anything prior to the last 10 years of Indycar.

I’ve embraced the belabored arrival of the aerokits.

I’ve finally made my peace with saying goodbye to the old Indycar.

I’ve become a happier race fan for it.

I predict I’m going to love watching Indycar unfold this season, and I know that’s one prediction I won’t miss.

Crystal Ballin’ 2014

Ah, yes. The waiting is over. It’s all to be done.

The newest of Indycar seasons is upon us and in keeping with my ill-advised tradition of making predictions, the time has come again. Rather than summarize my previous predictions, feel free to examine those thoughts from 2009, 2012, and 2013. Seers of sooth, sayers of all, gather ’round whilst I make the following lead-pipe cinches:

St. Pete – A new tradition was born in 2013 and a previous non-winner will win here. Odds are heavily against me as there have only been two in the history of St. Pete (Graham Rahal and James Hinchcliffe), but the first race of the season is always a wild-card in my opinion and this year’s first-time Indycar winner will be… Carlos Munoz.

Inaugural GP of Indy – A new tradition is born at IMS and I’ll predict a rain-shortened race, finishing under the red flag, with the winner not being the one who lead most of the race. 2014 and inaugural GP winner will be Will Power.

Indy 500 – I’m pleased (and TK is as well) to report that back in 2013, and for the first time in 7 prior years, I did NOT pick TK to win the 500, thus allowing Murphy’s Law to present him with his first Borg-Warner likeness. This year though the ‘double’ will actually come to be synonymous with grabbing the GP of Indy and the Indy 500 in the same year. 2014 Indy 500 winner = Will Power.

Triple Crownin’ – Pocono and Fontana makes up the remaining two-thirds of the Fuzzy’s Triple Crown. Again there will be a different winner at each race, so the winner of Pocono for ’14 will be Marco Andretti, and the Fontana winner will be Tony Kanaan.

Elsewhere – The remainder of the season will largely be as many before it – entertaining with smatterings of controversy. Other race winners in 2014 will include Dixon, Pagenaud, Bourdais, Montoya, Wilson… hell, even Sato will get a win this year. Championship Controversy will abound because people will be tracking the points in both the 2013 and 2014 formats. Replete with ballyhoo and consternation, the storylines following Indy will revolve around two points formats and who would be where. I predict the winner of the 2014 season championship would not have won under the 2013 points system. OH, THE HAND-WRINGING!

Verizon – A slow start, but major May-centric advertising blast will continue through the middle of the season with their logoed ‘Red-V’ on signage as far as the eye can see both in person and on TV. Nice, but how long before the public tunes it out as background noise much as the original IZOD campaign became tiresome?

Regardless, we’ll have another enjoyable season with some slight momentum going into 2015…

Oh, yes. 2015…
Aerokits: Finally. In keeping with a previous prediction (under ‘2013’ in that 2011 post) though, the visual and performance differences will be negligible to the average viewer, leaving many asking the question – “Just what in the wide, wide, world of sports was the point of aerokits anyway?!”

Motors: A (new) third powerplant finally (European) badged and in development, two entirely new venues scheduled for 2016, the loss of one storied venue, and the ever-present B&C (ballyhoo and consternation) in the off-season.

Teams: Two more teams will call it quits just prior to 2015 (one will fold, one will join Formula E) and one new, hugely optimistic (and former IMSA) team will join Indycar. Car count will sit at 20 this time next year with further consolidation of smaller teams.

TV: ABC will perform marginally better, NBC Sports will crush them again however in terms of production and fan preference, just not in the ratings… yet. Ratings will hold at their ’13 levels and the Sunshine Squad will note that upticks in ratings at a few events signal things are on the right path. Overall, the ratings will be the same for the season which will be cause for ongoing concern by entitlement sponsor Verizon.

Management: Between the typical controversies, proclamations, hints, appointments, firings, and typical squabbles of the Indycar ilk, management will stay largely behind-the-scenes for better of worse. Fans will need to get used to paying no attention to the ‘man behind the curtain’, the great and powerful Oz will speak only as necessary.

Despite the advent of what will be presented as new ‘traditions/improvements/enhancements’, Indycar will look largely the same by the start of 2015 that it did at the start of 2012, albeit with a slightly elevated financial situation.

The glacial rate of decision-making (largely caused by the ongoing and misplaced placation of the freshly consolidated owners), will stagnate what minor growth has occurred.

Suddenly, like a thunderbolt, the decree from management will come that this is the very best that Indycar can expect. The reverberations will at long last be enough to silence the long-time, ever-shinking, and stunned ‘traditionalist fanbase’ aged 45-95.

Conclusions – Enjoy what Indycar provides you, for it is all you shall have and all you shall expect to get. The sooner you can accept this, the happier you will be.

Indianapolis 500 Gettin’ Serious Time – 2012 (aka Cut-and-Paste Edition)

The rapidly approaching weekend means one thing and one thing only to me. Gone are concerns for the condition of my lawn or the tidyness of my backyard from kids’ toys or the amount of items crossed of my ‘to do’ list at home… it’s qualifying weekend at Indy.

In the past, I’ve been tuned to some device to hear the qualifying events as they occur. This year, my family and I will attend Pole Day and despite 25 races over 33 years, I’m getting quite excited as I type. Banzai runs for myself and for all the drivers at IMS tomorrow. I plan to also catch as many of you as possible while I’m there.

Having said that, it is now time to make my qualifying predictions, in order, as I’ve done the previous two years. As we know there are precisely 33 entrants with motors that have tested. Will there even be any bumping? Who knows – it’s Indy and it’s May and nothing is over until it’s over.

I will guarantee you one thing; this list will be wrong, but such is the life of a ‘seer of sooth, sayer of all’.

The PEAK Performance Polesitter: A Sandbaggers Delight – I’m going away from the Fast Friday beasts of Andretti Autosport and going with the suspiciously quiet Penske stable. By a whisker this year for the pole… Helio Castroneves.
Pole Speed: 227.383

The Top 9:
Row 1 – Castroneves, Andretti, Dixon,
Row 2 – Hunter-Reay, Power, Hinchcliffe
Row 3 – Franchitti, Hildebrand, Briscoe

Mid-table Obscurity (18):
Row 4 – Kanaan, Beatriz, Newgarden
Row 5 – Carpenter, Rahal, Kimball
Row 6 – Viso, Sato, Saavedra,
Row 7 – Conway, Bell,Wilson,
Row 8 – Jakes, Clauson, Pagenaud,
Row 9 – Tagliani, Cunningham, Barrichello

Danger Drives (6):
Row 10 – Servia, Jourdain, Bourdais,
Row 11 – Legge, Alesi, DeSilvestro

____________ Bump Line _______________
Just missing out on this year’s fun will be…
Only those who haven’t driven to date.

I make these predictions just minutes after the conclusion of Fast Friday practice and prior to the Pole Day Qualifying draw. As always my caveat for predictions is that any mid-table or lower driver forced into a backup car (due to practice crash or what-have-you, will likely move them down a group. In the immortal words of 80s rockers Asia, only time will tell…

Prediction? Pain.

*edit* This post, begun on August 5th and not finished until today may appear to be a rough bit of ‘piling on’ or ‘givin’ Indycar the bizness‘, after all the hoopla surrounding Race Control’s call at the end of the MoveThatBlock.com 225 yesterday. I assure you the negative tone of this rant was set following the announcement that the all-new 2009 chassis (which became the 2010 ICONIC competition) became the 2011 safety-cell chassis with aero kits, to be introduced in 2012, is now slated for 2013. I will admit my tone is enhanced by Sunday’s double-birds and officiating hubris and ‘best justice available’…

Recently a blog commentor, anotherindycarblog, noted some of my off-season thoughts of November 2009, several of which almost resemble something akin to prophecy. Emboldened by my newfound clairvoyance, I again put it ‘out there’ for the world to digest.

There’s a big ole bunch of Indycar badness headed our way. The size, strength, and threat of this badness reminds me of that fierce antagonist, Clubber Lang from Rocky III. Like Rocky Balboa, the current Indycar lives fairly comfortably on past success and we may or may not know the threat is even there, because our handlers (aka Indycar governors) will be coddling us, shielding us from harm, keeping us ‘safe’ from the very thing they fear, but what Rocky really wants… competition.

So with no further delay, I give everyone the ‘Tale of the Tape’ for Indycar 2012 and beyond… (*hint* I pity the fools).

Rocky Balboa (Pro):

2012:

– The newest chassis debuts and elicits an overall positive response from fans.
– The new engines are well-received by fans and especially noticeable will be the turbo whine, maximized for the at-race fan’s enjoyment.
– Two historic ovals not on the 2011 race schedule come on board to fans’ delight.
– Two road/streets on the 2011 schedule DON’T come back to fans’ delight.
– The Indy 500 TV ratings are higher than they’ve been in 18 years, largely due to the added hype of the 2012 chassis, Danica’s return to Indycar for her one-off, and increased speeds at Indy which will approach the upper 230s during the month of May. The enthusiasm follows to the next several races as all of them enjoy double-digit increases in TV viewership and Ticket sales.

2013:

– by early 2013, we will have exactly three different manufacturers of aero kits for the 2012 chassis, which will be ballyhooed by what remains of Indycar’s PR machine.
– by late 2012, a third engine manufacturer will be testing adding a bit of momentum for the spring of 2013.

Clubber Lang (Con):

2012:

– Danica leaves for NASCARland and things get seriously rainbows and kittens for her financial and retirement portfolio, in addition to finding that she actually prefers the slab-sided vehicles to the Indycar. Fans embrace her there and NASCAR’s popularity, judged by most common measures gets a double-digit uptick. NASCAR’s gain, Indycar’s loss once again.
– Nothing will change the presence of the ‘ride-buyer’, although part-time driving schedules will lead to even less success than in the ‘UberSpec’ 2003-2011 era.
– Barnhardt will remain in the Race Control supervising tech, but Indycar will shuffle in a new race steward who will fare little better as race referee, despite a much ballyhooed nomination to the post. More disillusionment with the leadership of Indycar ensues.
– The 78% of Indycar fans who aren’t on Twitter (and thereby don’t follow @pressdog or @oilpressureblog or @SBPopOffValve) will only now realize all the 2012 chassis are all EXACTLY THE SAME, question the absence of different chassis, and become disenfranchised (AGAIN) with Indycar’s governing ineptness. This group fractures into people who; begin watching WRC online, or foster their newfound interest in ALMS, largely due to the shockingly incredible performance at 24 Hours of LeMans by that Delta Wing thingy (Hey, why didn’t we get that thing for Indycar?).
– The 2012 motors, despite their well-received sound will all prove somewhat inconsistently-powered and somewhat unreliable. Fans of ‘three cars on the lead lap at midway’ or of ‘late-race motor-blowing which induces violent race standings shuffles’ will rejoice. Owners of said motors will not and publicly lament the loss of the yawn-inducing reliability of the Honda V8, (much to the dismay of Indycar PR).

2013:

– the two additional manufacturers of 2013 aero kits finally enter the Indycar stage but will all look so amazingly similar that it triggers a violent and palpable *ker-THUNK* as ICONIC’s decision for aero kits coupled with the Indycar owner-induced delay falls tremendously flat with nearly all Indycar fans. Many longtime fans will shake their heads and consider this the final-FINAL straw and leave for good.
– After numerous ‘lead balloon’ decisions and the Centennial Era a fading memory, Indycar is in a delicate state left with fewer fans than in 2011, a fractured TV coverage package, declining ratings, and a CEO teetering with his sport on the brink of total collapse… Very hard decisions must be made…

To continue to fight or retire?

Qualifying Recap/Race Preview

THAT was maybe the most topsy-turvy Pole and Bump Day in recent history and maybe of all time.

I can say that despite the all the nonsensicalness of who qualified when and where and got bumped and by whom… I correctly predicted the outcome of qualifying…
for one driver anyway – Vitor Meira, middle of Row 5. I was within one spot of another 4 drivers – Dixon, Power, Junquiera, and Kimball. It appears I have the Foyt Racing stable pretty well pegged.

I managed to get only two of the seven ‘bumpees’ correct – Saavedra and Jakes, meaning 5 of the drivers I had bumped made the show. I’m happy to report that Pippa Mann, Hinchcliffe, Lloyd, Howard, and Beatriz made it in but coming at the expense of very good drivers such as Andretti Autosport teammates Hunter-Reay and Conway, AFS Racing’s Matos, and both Dragons Speed and Tung.

Now excitement shifts into top gear, for raceday is nearly upon us and I for one cannot wait to see what this ol’ Speedway is going to give us this year… I’m foreseeing something rather special…

“Race Prediction?”, you ask.
OK, not gonna just pick a winner, but a Top 10.

Panther finally gets their first win at Indy as Buddy Rice (crazy, flat-brimmed cap and all) wins his 2nd.

Runner-up Dixon and teammate Franchitti will have been in the Top 5 all day, but fate conspires against TCGR near the end and Rice (who history will report had had the racing gods smiling upon him that day) steps through the breach and takes the victory.

Dixon finishes 2nd, Bell 3rd, Castroneves 4th, Tagliani 5th, Wheldon 6th, Carpenter 7th, Franchitti 8th, Meira 9th, Rahal 10th.

That’s my story and I’m sticking to it. Think I’m nuts and want to tell me so? Please do. Leave a comment below. It’s like a type-written answering machine. I may be listening to you, I may not. Yep I’m a screener of my home phone. “Leave a comment… I’ll get back to you.”

Enjoy your race weekend (I know I plan to), and don’t miss the 100th Anniversary edition of the Indianapolis 500!

It’s "Gettin’ Serious" Time

The rapidly approaching weekend means one thing and one thing only to me. Gone are concerns for the condition of my lawn or the tidyness of my backyard from kids’ toys or the amount of items crossed of my ‘to do’ list at home… it’s qualifying weekend at Indy.

Now I DO have some unmovable commitments (not scheduled by me) for Saturday that involve driving (the family to visit some longtime friends over an hour away). This is just such an occasion that reminds me why I have satellite radio. I will command the programming be Indy Pole day coverage unless *gasp* it is rained out (perish the thought).

Having said that, I will now make my qualifying predictions, in order, as I did a year ago. I can guarantee you one thing; this list will be wrong, but such is the life of a ‘seer of sooth, sayer of all’.

The PEAK Performance Polesitter: I’m going against the prohibitive favorite Penske stable this year and pick a Target Car for the pole… Dario Franchitti.
Pole Speed: 228.683

The Top 11 (plus 1):
Row 1 – Franchitti, Castroneves, Dixon,
Row 2 – Briscoe, M. Andretti, Power,
Row 3 – Tagliani, Rahal, Patrick,
Row 4 – Kanaan, Meira, Carpenter,

Mid-table Obscurity (15):
Row 5 – Rice, Hunter-Reay, Hildebrand,
Row 6 – Servia, Wilson, Scheckter,
Row 7 – Conway, Junquiera, Tracy,
Row 8 – Matos, Bell, Sato,
Row 9 – Hamilton, Tung, J. Andretti,

Danger Drives (6):
Row 10 – Viso, DeSilvestro, Kimball,
Row 11 – Speed, Wheldon, Baguette

____________ Bump Line _______________
Just missing out on this year’s fun will be…
James Jakes, Alex Lloyd, Ana Beatriz,
Seb Saavedra, Pippa Mann, Jay Howard,
James Hinchliffe

The lone chassis without a driver is the the 57 of Sarah Fisher Racing. I doubt this will see any action whatsoever.

I make these predicitons with just minutes before practice on Thursday, May 19. As always my caveat for predictions is that any mid-table or lower driver forced into a backup car (due to practice crash or what-have-you, will likely move them down a group. In the immortal words of 80s rockers Asia, only time will tell…

(Not) Too Much Time on My Hands

As I am currently scurrying about finding this and packing that, I leave a brief post following my qualie predictions and a ‘sayonara‘ until after the race.

One bit of perfection. One perfect pick out of 33 plus. If you read my previous post you’ll find I had Alex Lloyd pegged into the 26th spot. Nailed it.

The rest of the field? Ahhhh… not so much. Missed the pole sitter, missed 4 of the First 9, had 3 missing the field that actually made it, had 3 making the field that missed, and ended with 32 drivers in the wrong position. Stellar.

Regarding the trip, all seems to be going to plan and the weather has changed dramatically since a week ago. The sultry 80s have returned to Indiana with high humidity, bringing with it the increased chance for pop-up thunderstorms. Still, the preliminary forecasts show mostly sunny all weekend long and moderate cooling in the evenings. Very temperate, very excellent for the campers, very excellent for me.

I wish you all a great Memorial Day weekend and hope you’ll be near a TV, Radio, or XM Radio to catch all the happenings of the Greatest Spectacle in Racing, live.

One of my favorite parts of the run-up to the Green Flag is the Invocation which requests that God watch over the drivers, the mechanics and the crews (in several languages). So, in the words of Archbishop Daniel Buechlein (fractured and spelled as phoentically as I could decipher froma n audio file) I bid you… “Calebundu ba abec du, mega gote siebe gleiten, ku me ten, vayee con dioose, kamigo noga kigoka aryu mat so gan, dio de guida, vaya con dios, godspeed.”

PS I will stand by a prediction made prior to qualifying despite his not starting from where I thought. My prediction for the win (aka kiss of death for the victory) goes to Mr. Graham Rahal, from the inside of Row 3, not Row 4 as I had earlier predicted.

Godspeed indeed,