This 500 Will Be Special

It was a little after 6pm Sunday afternoon, soon after qualifying had ended for the 105th Indianapolis 500, at home sitting in my favorite chair, reflecting on how much I enjoyed what had transpired over the previous six hours of my Sunday. I am never on-site for 500 qualifying, so this was a qualifying Sunday I had genuinely enjoyed more than I had in a very long time. Then a strange realization hit me.

My enjoyment illuminated something I hadn’t felt for a very long time, perhaps even before 1995. Gone was the weight of the past. Gone was my annual angst over ’33’ and how it ‘should be’. Gone was ‘the split’. Gone was the millstone of ‘sacred racing traditions’ that had hung around my neck for far too long. A growing feeling that, through all that had transpired over the recent months, and all we as a collective group of humans had endured, a guarded new hope and optimism began to emerge. It was as if the weather fell upon that lovely track last Sunday was to remind us that everything is again as it should be, just in the new way.

The track temperature waxed and waned, and the wind appeared just enough to be recognized. The conditions were a flirtatious reminder that, despite our western-worldly inclinations as humans that it is our destiny to grasp ‘control’ of the many things in our purview, sometimes it’s down to the subtly fickle and unknown origin of a generic Indiana Sunday in mid-May that surpasses the engineers and crew and drivers, to settle it’s final favor upon the field, just as it had at times in decades before.

I’ve not said much about it in the last few years, but to me Indycar, and especially the 500, has felt notably starched and a bit too manufactured to be rendered joyful. Even the greatest build-up in all of sports was metered-for-TV-ad-space, essentially draining all excitement of what was literally my favorite 30 minutes of the year. It sadly has been quite a long time since I’ve been surprised with chills up my neck watching Indycar either on-screen or in-person.

Mostly I recall only the in-person chills I’ve been fortunate enough to experience that only the crescendo of a hundred thousand cheering on the main straight can give. Notably when Michael and Rick traded unbelievable Turn 1 passes in 1991, or the amazing finish of the most otherwordly race in 1992, or Danica’s pass for the lead on Lap 190 in 2005 or Sam Hornish making a front-straight pass for the win in 2006. As I try to recall the most recent time, I think it may have been the last time Jim Nabors sang the first seven syllables of that glorious song, prior to the start of the engines in 2014, knowing it would be his last.

The day’s drama of the 2021 edition of last row qualifications was certainly tense and bittersweet but also gave way to the building tension of Fast 9 qualifying. As Tony Kanaan, Rinus VeeKay, then Ed Carpenter cracked the 232 miles-per-hour barrier with their first laps Sunday, the crowd noise through my TV was more than I’d heard in years and that magical feeling of chills long missing from my Indycar pleasure went up my neck once again. I can only imagine how great that must have felt in-person. With little left to write of the story of 2021 qualifying, the stage was set for the last two drivers and they also did not disappoint with two of the closest pole runs in history.

In spending much of my late-Sunday evening pouring over the field for this Sunday’s race, I can’t help but feel that this 500 will genuinely be special. For what reason, I cannot yet say. Let’s just say that it’s a feeling.

I find facets of this race intriguing already though:

  • The fastest average speed field in history.
  • One of the closest fields in speed in history.
  • Nine former winners.
  • A progressive team featuring a majority female ownership and crew.
  • 15 nations of origin represented in the field of 33.
  • The presence of the ‘Second Golden Era’ legends alongside the stunning emergence of ‘Generation Next’.
  • A new ownership and revamped facility awaiting what will once again be the largest single-day spectator sporting event in the world.
  • Generations of fans who appreciate the past, relish the present, and excite at the promise of the future of Indycar.

Much of what constitutes the essence of this race reminds me greatly of the race 30 years ago. A celebrated front row and field full of the First Golden Era legends, the current stars, barrier-breakers, and youth. During that race we saw things never-before seen, racecars still deemed aesthetically ‘perfect’ by many to this day, a competition of machine and driver and crew on the grandest scale, culminating in the crowning of the newest royalty at Indy.

Maybe the alignment is too perfect to be true, but I have to wonder if we won’t again crown 4-time royalty this Sunday in a legendary race for the ages. Perhaps it’s all too much to hope.

Regardless, I know I’ll need to go and find out first-hand. I hope to see you there too and we can share the experience of it all unfolding before our eyes.

Indianapolis 500 Gettin’ Serious Time – 2012 (aka Cut-and-Paste Edition)

The rapidly approaching weekend means one thing and one thing only to me.  Gone are concerns for the condition of my lawn or the tidyness of my backyard from kids’ toys or the amount of items crossed of my ‘to do’ list at home… it’s qualifying weekend at Indy.

In the past, I’ve been tuned to some device to hear the qualifying events as they occur. This year, my family and I will attend Pole Day and despite 25 races over 33 years, I’m getting quite excited as I type. Banzai runs for myself and for all the drivers at IMS tomorrow. I plan to also catch as many of you as possible while I’m there.

Having said that, it is now time to make my qualifying predictions, in order, as I’ve done the previous two years. As we know there are precisely 33 entrants with motors that have tested. Will there even be any bumping? Who knows – it’s Indy and it’s May and nothing is over until it’s over. 

I will guarantee you one thing; this list will be wrong, but such is the life of a ‘seer of sooth, sayer of all’.

The PEAK Performance Polesitter: A Sandbaggers Delight – I’m going away from the Fast Friday beasts of Andretti Autosport and going with the suspiciously quiet Penske stable.  By a whisker this year for the pole… Helio Castroneves.
Pole Speed: 227.383

The Top 9: 
Row 1 – Castroneves, Andretti, Dixon, 
Row 2 – Hunter-Reay, Power, Hinchcliffe
Row 3 – Franchitti, Hildebrand, Briscoe

Mid-table Obscurity (18):
Row 4 – Kanaan, Beatriz, Newgarden
Row 5 – Carpenter, Rahal, Kimball
Row 6 – Viso, Sato, Saavedra,
Row 7 – Conway, Bell,Wilson, 
Row 8 – Jakes, Clauson, Pagenaud, 
Row 9 – Tagliani, Cunningham, Barrichello 

Danger Drives (6):
Row 10 – Servia, Jourdain, Bourdais, 
Row 11 – Legge, Alesi, DeSilvestro

____________ Bump Line _______________
Just missing out on this year’s fun will be…
Only those who haven’t driven to date.

I make these predictions just minutes after the conclusion of Fast Friday practice and prior to the Pole Day Qualifying draw. As always my caveat for predictions is that any mid-table or lower driver forced into a backup car (due to practice crash or what-have-you, will likely move them down a group. In the immortal words of 80s rockers Asia, only time will tell

Qualifying Recap/Race Preview

THAT was maybe the most topsy-turvy Pole and Bump Day in recent history and maybe of all time.


I can say that despite the all the nonsensicalness of who qualified when and where and got bumped and by whom…  I correctly predicted the outcome of qualifying…  
for one driver anyway – Vitor Meira, middle of Row 5.  I was within one spot of another 4 drivers – Dixon, Power, Junquiera, and Kimball.  It appears I have the Foyt Racing stable pretty well pegged.


I managed to get only two of the seven ‘bumpees’ correct – Saavedra and Jakes, meaning 5 of the drivers I had bumped made the show. I’m happy to report that Pippa Mann, Hinchcliffe, Lloyd, Howard, and Beatriz made it in but coming at the expense of very good drivers such as Andretti Autosport teammates Hunter-Reay and Conway, AFS Racing’s Matos, and both Dragons Speed and Tung.


Now excitement shifts into top gear, for raceday is nearly upon us and I for one cannot wait to see what this ol’ Speedway is going to give us this year… I’m foreseeing something rather special…


“Race Prediction?”, you ask. 
OK, not gonna just pick a winner, but a Top 10.


Panther finally gets their first win at Indy as Buddy Rice (crazy, flat-brimmed cap and all) wins his 2nd. 

Runner-up Dixon and teammate Franchitti will have been in the Top 5 all day, but fate conspires against TCGR near the end and Rice (who history will report had had the racing gods smiling upon him that day) steps through the breach and takes the victory.

Dixon finishes 2nd, Bell 3rd, Castroneves 4th, Tagliani 5th, Wheldon 6th, Carpenter 7th, Franchitti 8th, Meira 9th, Rahal 10th.  


That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.  Think I’m nuts and want to tell me so?  Please do.  Leave a comment below. It’s like a type-written answering machine.  I may be listening to you, I may not.  Yep I’m a screener of my home phone.  “Leave a comment… I’ll get back to you.” 


Enjoy your race weekend (I know I plan to), and don’t miss the 100th Anniversary edition of the Indianapolis 500!

It’s "Gettin’ Serious" Time

The rapidly approaching weekend means one thing and one thing only to me.  Gone are concerns for the condition of my lawn or the tidyness of my backyard from kids’ toys or the amount of items crossed of my ‘to do’ list at home… it’s qualifying weekend at Indy.


Now I DO have some unmovable commitments (not scheduled by me) for Saturday that involve driving (the family to visit some longtime friends over an hour away). This is just such an occasion that reminds me why I have satellite radio. I will command the programming be Indy Pole day coverage unless *gasp* it is rained out (perish the thought).


Having said that, I will now make my qualifying predictions, in order, as I did a year ago. I can guarantee you one thing; this list will be wrong, but such is the life of a ‘seer of sooth, sayer of all’.


The PEAK Performance Polesitter: I’m going against the prohibitive favorite Penske stable this year and pick a Target Car for the pole… Dario Franchitti.
Pole Speed: 228.683


The Top 11 (plus 1): 
Row 1 – Franchitti, Castroneves, Dixon, 
Row 2 – Briscoe, M. Andretti, Power,
Row 3 – Tagliani, Rahal, Patrick,
Row 4 – Kanaan, Meira, Carpenter,


Mid-table Obscurity (15):
Row 5 – Rice, Hunter-Reay, Hildebrand, 
Row 6 – Servia, Wilson, Scheckter,
Row 7 – Conway, Junquiera, Tracy,
Row 8 – Matos, Bell, Sato, 
Row 9 – Hamilton, Tung, J. Andretti, 


Danger Drives (6):
Row 10 – Viso, DeSilvestro, Kimball,
Row 11 – Speed, Wheldon, Baguette


____________ Bump Line _______________
Just missing out on this year’s fun will be…
James Jakes, Alex Lloyd, Ana Beatriz,
Seb Saavedra, Pippa Mann, Jay Howard,
James Hinchliffe


The lone chassis without a driver is the the 57 of Sarah Fisher Racing. I doubt this will see any action whatsoever.


I make these predicitons with just minutes before practice on Thursday, May 19. As always my caveat for predictions is that any mid-table or lower driver forced into a backup car (due to practice crash or what-have-you, will likely move them down a group. In the immortal words of 80s rockers Asia, only time will tell

(Not) Too Much Time on My Hands

As I am currently scurrying about finding this and packing that, I leave a brief post following my qualie predictions and a ‘sayonara until after the race. 
One bit of perfection. One perfect pick out of 33 plus. If you read my previous post you’ll find I had Alex Lloyd pegged into the 26th spot. Nailed it.
The rest of the field? Ahhhh… not so much.  Missed the pole sitter, missed 4 of the First 9, had 3 missing the field that actually made it, had 3 making the field that missed, and ended with 32 drivers in the wrong position. Stellar.
Regarding the trip, all seems to be going to plan and the weather has changed dramatically since a week ago.  The sultry 80s have returned to Indiana with high humidity, bringing with it the increased chance for pop-up thunderstorms. Still, the preliminary forecasts show mostly sunny all weekend long and moderate cooling in the evenings. Very temperate, very excellent for the campers, very excellent for me.
I wish you all a great Memorial Day weekend and hope you’ll be near a TV, Radio, or XM Radio to catch all the happenings of the Greatest Spectacle in Racing, live. 
One of my favorite parts of the run-up to the Green Flag is the Invocation which requests that God watch over the drivers, the mechanics and the crews (in several languages). So, in the words of Archbishop Daniel Buechlein (fractured and spelled as phoentically as I could decipher froma n audio file) I bid you… “Calebundu ba abec du, mega gote siebe gleiten, ku me ten, vayee con dioose, kamigo noga kigoka aryu mat so gan, dio de guida, vaya con dios, godspeed.”

PS  I will stand by a prediction made prior to qualifying despite his not starting from where I thought. My prediction for the win (aka kiss of death for the victory) goes to Mr. Graham Rahal, from the inside of Row 3, not Row 4 as I had earlier predicted.
Godspeed indeed,
DZ

I’m better than ESPN

I’m better than ESPN.

I’m better than ESPN or ABC or Speed or any other mainstream media outlet because I’m willing to stick my neck out and make grand predictions regarding qualifications for the 2010 Indianapolis 500 with nothing to gain and everything to lose regarding my intelligence and credibility. In the odd case that I get that one thing in eleven correct, I will tout my brilliant soothsaying but I will also temper it with the cold, hard, facts of my percentage.

At any rate, here’s my analysis of the top 25 of 38 current qualifiers IN ORDER and BEFORE it all goes down.  Remember, you heard it here first: 

Top Shelf (9):

The Pole (AKA Master of the Obvious selection) – Penske car, I’ll go with…  Briscoe.

The Top 9 – Briscoe, Dixon, Castroneves, Franchitti, Kanaan, M. Andretti, Power, Wheldon, Moraes.

Mid-table Obscurity (16):

Rahal, Matos, Tracy, J. Andretti, Wilson, Scheckter, Mutoh, Patrick, Carpenter, Bell, Hunter-Reay, Fisher, Hamilton, Conway, Meira, Viso.

And here is where it becomes interesting…
Perhaps the tension of who will not make the show is more compelling than who wins the pole, but simple math will tell you that with the current 38 entries, 5 will be bumped.

I have grouped 13 entries that fall below the ‘level of comfort’ in terms of recent experience, skill, equipment, Karma, or whathaveyou, placing them in jeopardy come next Sunday, ranked in order of most likely to least likely to be bumped. 

Danger Drives (5):

1.  98/98T unknown – CURB/Agajanian/3G – A wily veteran will drop in on the second day to surprise a few folks and sneak into the field? Only if it’s Rick Mears. Nahhh, nevermind.
2.  18/18T Duno – Dale Coyne – This will be the beginning of the end for this driver in IndyCar.
3.  29/29T Saavedra (r) – Bryan Herta Autosport – some experience via the Firestone Lights, but this is the team’s initial race effort on the biggest stage no less – tall order.
4.  36/36T Baguette (r) – Conquest – simply not enough experience and team has no major sponsor to assist with ‘motivation’ on qualifying day.
5.  34/34T Romancini (r) – Conquest – also a Lights grad, but will just miss the field.

———- Bump Line ———- 

Bump Day Drama Queens/Kings AKA Survivors (8):

6.  25/25T Beatriz (r) – Dreyer/Reinbold – similar to other Lights grads, better team.  Will be close, but just enough to squeeze into the field.
7.  66/66T Howard (r) – Sarah Fisher – Will survive by the skin of his teeth (as long as he keeps it off the wall).
8.  78/78T DeSilvestro (r) – HVM – Simply enough talent on a decent team to survive a nervy rookie qualifying weekend.
9.  33/33T Junquiera – FAZZT – Karma sees this man through into the field this year, provided Tagliani survives first day qualifying safely. This ride could evaporate if rumors about funding are true.
10. 41/41T Foyt IV – Foyt – Will appear fairly safe on second day, but time will slide down the charts, a bit too near the precipice for his liking.
11. 5/5T Sato – KV – Is a rookie like the Lights grads are ‘rookies’, but with a better team and skill. Must keep it off the wall this week.
12. 77/77T Tagliani – FAZZT – Was in last year only because the team owner installed him in Junquiera’s qualifier. Will be determined to not be that close ever again. Still will be too close for his liking.
13. 19/19T Lloyd – Coyne – The former ‘Pink’ will have some work to do without a teammate capable of assisting when things get tight. Experience will see him through. 

Qualie Caveats:

A. Any car in the above list that ends up in the wall will place extreme pressure on that driver. In that case, I’d drop a driver 3 places closer to the bottom in the above ranking.

B. Sponsors who’ve written big checks hate to not make the show, so often another driver is brought into a struggling seat in hopes of making the race. We know that the 98 machine will need a driver, and I wouldn’t be surprised if another driver steps into one of the Conquest cars at a minimum.

The pool of quality drivers with recent experience isn’t terribly deep: Servia, Doornbos, Sharp, Phillipe, B. Lazier, Simmons, Bernoldi, Rice, Camara, J. Lazier, and Manning are among the most recent.

Well that’s pretty much it.  I leave judgment to the march of time. Best wishes for the remaining month and I will likely have just one more post before signing off and heading to Indy for the race.